Results from the third quarter (July to September) of 2025 show an ever steeper upward trend in referrals to the National Referral Mechanism and the Duty to Notify process. Both statistics show record numbers of potential victims of modern slavery in the United Kingdom. Key results from the Home Office offical statistics are:

• 6,414 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from July to September 2025, representing a 13% increase compared to the previous quarter (5,689) and a 35% increase from July to September 2024 (4,752)
• the number of referrals received this quarter is the highest number of referrals received in a single quarter since the NRM began in 2009
• 81% (5,165) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 19% (1,249) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK (20%; 1,312), Eritrean (16%; 1,044) and Somali (10%; 662)
• this was the highest number of referrals for UK, Eritrean and Somali nationals in a quarter since the NRM began
• 112 disqualification requests were made this quarter, representing a 50% increase compared to the previous quarter (56)
• 6,470 reasonable grounds and 6,708 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 64% of reasonable grounds and 68% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began
• the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision continues to fall, with 9,107cases awaiting a decision at the end of September 2025, a reduction of 21% from the previous quarter (11,645) and a reduction of 69% from the peak at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of June 2025 was 141 days, as compared to 304 days at the end of the previous quarter
• the Home Office received 2,001 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the highest in a single quarter since the DtN began

 

See the full Home Office report for offical statistics here.