Results from the final quarter (October to December) of 2025 show a slight decrease from the previous quarter in referrals to the National Referral Mechanism and the Duty to Notify process. However, overall the trend has increased from the previous year, continuing to show record numbers of referrals. Key results from the Home Office offical statistics are:

• a total of 6,021 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office (HO) from October to December 2025, a 6% decrease compared to the previous quarter (6,407) and a 9% increase compared to October to December 2025 (5,538)
• the number of referrals received was the second highest since the NRM began operating in 2009, second only to the previous quarter
• over three-quarters of all referrals (79%, 4,757) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration with the remainder (21%, 1,264) sent to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• potential victims from the UK (22%; 1,316), Eritrea (14%; 843) and Somalia (10%; 579) were the most frequently referred nationalities
• referrals for UK nationals were the highest in a single quarter since the NRM began
• a total of 6,346 reasonable grounds and 7,406 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 62% (3,948) of reasonable grounds and 73% (5,406) of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began
• there were 5,758 cases were awaiting a decision at end of December 2025, a decrease of 37% from the previous quarter (9,107) and of 80% from the peak recorded at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of December 2025 was 76 days, compared to 120 days at the end of the previous quarter and 627 days at the end of 2023
• the HO received 1,748 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process

 

For the Home Office National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, end of year summary 2025, please see here.