The Human Trafficking & Modern Slavery Expert Directory

Results from the first quarter (January to March) of 2026 show similar figures from the previous quarter referrals to the National Referral Mechanism and the Duty to Notify process. However, overall the trend continues to increase from previous years. Significantly, the number of UK victims continues to make up the highest proportion of referrals. Key results from the Home Office offical statistics are:

• a total of 6,003 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from January to March 2026, a figure similar to the previous quarter (6,017) but a 13% increase compared to the period January to March 2025 (5,294)
• 74% (4,451) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 26% (1,552) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• potential victims from the UK (24%; 1,435), Eritrea (11%; 654) and Somalia (8%; 503) were the most frequently referred nationalities
• referrals for UK nationals from January to March were the highest in a single quarter since the NRM began
• January to March 2026 saw the highest total number of referrals reporting exploitation exclusively in the UK in a single quarter since the NRM began (2,448)
• a total of 5,990 reasonable grounds and 5,680 conclusive grounds decisions were issued between January and March 2026; of these, 65% (3,876) of reasonable grounds and 68% (3,846) of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• there were 4,726 cases awaiting a decision at the end of March 2026, a decrease of 18% from the end of December 2025 (5,758) and of 84% from the peak recorded at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of March 2026 was 53 days, compared to 76 days at the end of December 2025 and 678 days at the peak in June 2024
• the Home Office received 1,628 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process between January and March 2026, representing a reduction of 7% compared to the previous quarter (1,748), but an increase of 1% compared to the same period in 2025 (1,609)

See the full Home Office report for offical statistics here.

Modern slavery remains a significant issue in the United Kingdom, with the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) providing a system for identifying and supporting potential victims. The statistics for 2025 demonstrate a continued increase in the number of people being referred to the Home Office as potential victims of modern slavery. A record 23,411 referrals were made during the year, representing a 22% increase from 2024 and the highest annual total since the NRM began operating in 2009. The increase in reports through the Duty to Notify (DtN) process highlights the continued scale of adult modern slavery cases being identified across the UK.  Overall, the 2025 statistics demonstrate both the increasing scale of modern slavery referrals in the UK and significant changes in the way cases are being processed.

• a total of 23,411 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office (HO) in 2025, representing a 22% increase compared to the preceding year (19,117)
• the number of referrals made in this year is the highest in any year since the NRM began, overtaking the record from the previous year (2024)
• over three-quarters of referrals (77%, 17,999) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 23% (5,412) were sent to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA) (see Figure 1)
• the most common nationalities referred this year were UK (22%; 5,110), Eritrean (13%; 3,083) and Vietnamese (9%; 1,998)
• 2025 year saw the highest number of referrals for nationals of the UK, Eritrea and Somalia in any year since the NRM began operating in 2009
• the total of 23,587 reasonable grounds and 25,390 conclusive grounds decisions made in 2025 represent the highest number made in a single year since the NRM began; of these, 61% of reasonable grounds and 66% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• there were 5,758 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issues a positive reasonable grounds decision at the end of 2025
• this was 66% lower than the number awaiting a decision at the end of 2024 (17,168) and 80% lower than the peak recorded at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision following a positive reasonable grounds decision was 76 days at the end of 2025, compared to 120 days at the end of 2024
• the HO received 7,130 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process in 2025, the highest in a single year since the DtN began

 

The record number of referrals, together with the highest number of reasonable and conclusive grounds decisions since the NRM began, indicates a substantial level of activity within the system. At the same time, the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision fell considerably, decreasing by 66% compared with 2024, while the median waiting time also fell from 120 to 76 days. The continued rise in referrals, including the record number of reports received through the Duty to Notify process, suggests that the identification of potential victims remains an important and ongoing issue. Taken together, the statistics show a system dealing with an unprecedented number of referrals while also making progress in reducing the outstanding caseload.

For the Home Office National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify end of year summary 2025, see here.

Results from the final quarter (October to December) of 2025 show a slight decrease from the previous quarter in referrals to the National Referral Mechanism and the Duty to Notify process. However, overall the trend has increased from the previous year, continuing to show record numbers of referrals. Key results from the Home Office offical statistics are:

• a total of 6,021 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office (HO) from October to December 2025, a 6% decrease compared to the previous quarter (6,407) and a 9% increase compared to October to December 2025 (5,538)
• the number of referrals received was the second highest since the NRM began operating in 2009, second only to the previous quarter
• over three-quarters of all referrals (79%, 4,757) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration with the remainder (21%, 1,264) sent to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• potential victims from the UK (22%; 1,316), Eritrea (14%; 843) and Somalia (10%; 579) were the most frequently referred nationalities
• referrals for UK nationals were the highest in a single quarter since the NRM began
• a total of 6,346 reasonable grounds and 7,406 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 62% (3,948) of reasonable grounds and 73% (5,406) of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began
• there were 5,758 cases were awaiting a decision at end of December 2025, a decrease of 37% from the previous quarter (9,107) and of 80% from the peak recorded at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of December 2025 was 76 days, compared to 120 days at the end of the previous quarter and 627 days at the end of 2023
• the HO received 1,748 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process

 

For the Home Office National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, end of year summary 2025, please see here. 

After the highest recorded numbers of potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) in 2024, statistics from the first quarter in 2025 show this trend continuing. In 2024 there was an increase of 13% of referrals from 2023.  Annually in 2024, 19,125 people were referred to the NRM.

This summary is pulled from the Home Office Official Statistics on Modern Slavery for the first quarter in 2025 (January to March). It includes key facts and findings regarding the numbers of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the NRM or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process.

• 5,297 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from January to March 2025, representing a 4% decrease compared to the previous quarter (5,538) and a 17% increase from January to March 2024 (4,517)
• the number of referrals received this quarter is the second-highest since the NRM began in 2009, behind only the record in the previous quarter
• 72% (3,826) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 28% (1,471) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK (23%; 1,210), Vietnamese (12%; 645) and Eritrean (10%; 553)
• this was the highest number of referrals for UK and Vietnamese nationals in a quarter since the NRM began
• this was the first quarter since the start of the NRM data series in 2014 that Albanian nationals were not in the top 3 most referred nationalities
• 5,239 reasonable grounds and 5,833 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 53% of reasonable grounds and 58% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began, representing a 12% increase on the record in the previous quarter (5,253)
• the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision continues to fall, with 14,033 cases awaiting a decision at the end of March 2025, a reduction of 18% from the previous quarter (17,168) and a reduction of 52% from the peak at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of March 2025 was 460 days, as compared to 630 days at the end of the previous quarter
• the Home Office received 1,609 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the second-highest in a quarter since the DtN began and behind only the record in the previous quarter (1,800)

 

See the full Home Office report here.

Statistics for the National Referral Mechanism in the UK, for fourth quarter in 2024 (October to December) includes a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process.

• 5,540 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from October to December 2024, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous quarter (4,755) and a 34% increase from October to December 2023 (4,131)
• the number of referrals received this quarter is the highest in a quarter since the NRM began in 2009, overtaking the record in the previous quarter
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK (20%; 1,113), Eritrean (11%; 632) and Albanian (11%; 605)
• this was the highest number of referrals for Eritrean nationals since the NRM began, overtaking the record in the previous quarter
• 5,733 reasonable grounds and 5,243 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 49% of reasonable grounds and 61% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• there were 17,168 cases which have been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision and are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, as of the end of December 2024
• the Home Office received 1,800 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the highest in a quarter since the NRM began in 2015 and a 19% increase from the previous record in the period from July to September 2024 (1,501)

 

See the full Home Office report here.